Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.820244 4.154854 4.523705 4.964095 5.480517 6.073262 6.814626
2025-01-12 3.297659 3.719959 4.216071 4.853323 5.668071 6.702188 8.163658
2025-01-19 2.937112 3.387638 3.938263 4.679979 5.686241 7.060956 9.201597
2025-01-26 2.779361 3.270500 3.892913 4.770018 6.031930 7.893720 11.127541
2025-02-02 2.693265 3.227851 3.928562 4.959789 6.533458 9.052659 14.017058
2025-02-09 2.596633 3.158345 3.915169 5.070358 6.926380 10.130440 17.304788
2025-02-16 2.462840 3.025884 3.799012 5.009781 7.029260 10.721540 19.910028
2025-02-23 2.352797 2.916943 3.705004 4.968770 7.152683 11.378121 23.144834
2025-03-02 2.253418 2.815582 3.612671 4.917924 7.246889 11.998758 26.833862
2025-03-09 2.165265 2.724299 3.527629 4.868397 7.333067 12.626308 31.255356
2025-03-16 2.096191 2.656072 3.471705 4.860155 7.494299 13.479527 37.822931
2025-03-23 2.052551 2.621945 3.464667 4.932896 7.826196 14.883187 50.149599
2025-03-30 1.971775 2.530207 3.364098 4.836275 7.802193 15.353593 58.812198
2025-04-06 1.895452 2.441780 3.263894 4.732108 7.748437 15.734113 68.709993
2025-04-13 1.811633 2.338657 3.134988 4.565994 7.537268 15.575987 73.665912
2025-04-20 1.785957 2.322057 3.143684 4.652419 7.905401 17.435954 117.028233
2025-04-27 1.780191 2.335101 3.200720 4.834393 8.534442 20.649004 292.526432
2025-05-04 1.759954 2.324530 3.217558 4.940328 9.004025 23.690006 1406.131416
2025-05-11 1.712152 2.268716 3.154854 4.882298 9.038423 24.838550 26732.773145
2025-05-18 1.670444 2.220946 3.103476 4.843000 9.117921 26.312025 NaN
2025-05-25 1.629594 2.173060 3.049586 4.794266 9.164296 27.689765 NaN
2025-06-01 1.591208 2.127794 2.998169 4.746782 9.207690 29.137721 NaN
2025-06-08 1.561147 2.094842 2.966702 4.738879 9.366807 31.539370 NaN